As the automotive industry chain is rapidly moving towards intelligence and electrification, various types of mobile vehicles have opened up great business opportunities in the smart electric vehicle industry ecosystem, and may even reach 114 smart electric vehicles by 2023. It can be seen that the future development of the industry will show irreversible trend. It is estimated that the penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach nearly 20% within two years.
A number of traditional automobile manufacturers have pledged to make all new cars meet the “net zero emission” standard by 2040; about 30 countries, led by the European Union, have also pledged to formulate relevant laws and regulations to implement vehicle carbon emission standards, so as to improve the progress of electrified vehicles. become an important key.
According to Bloomberg’s estimates, the global new electric vehicle market will reach 30 million units by 2030, with a market size of about US$3 trillion, 47.3 million units in 2032, and 60 million units in 2040 (accounting for the total number of new vehicles). 55% of the market). Such huge business opportunities have also attracted the active investment of many major manufacturers. International car manufacturers, including Tesla, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, BYD, etc., are actively launching a variety of electric vehicles to rush the market, and other car manufacturers are also actively developing or developing. Production of electric vehicles, such as the electric bus developed and produced by Hon Hai, will be delivered and put into operation in 2022.
3 big factors determine the future of electric vehicles
The future development of electric vehicles depends on the advancement of battery technology and the development of vehicle electrical systems. Batteries are the key to affecting the cost and endurance of electric vehicles. The battery charging time and whether the charging facilities are common also affect the willingness of users to use them. The three factors of environmental protection, charging convenience, and overall use cost will be the key factors that determine the future development of electric vehicles.
1. Environmental protection
Whether an electric vehicle is environmentally friendly has a great relationship with the source of power generation and the carbon footprint of the electric vehicle. The source of power generation for charging will affect the actual carbon emission of the electric vehicle. Contaminated sites are moved to power generation.
According to research in scientific journals, when the carbon emission per kilowatt-hour of electricity in your country is less than 750 grams, even if the motor efficiency of electric vehicles is not good enough, the carbon footprint of electric vehicles is still lower than that of gasoline vehicles. More than 95% of the places meet this condition. The study also included Taiwan, where electric vehicles have a carbon footprint per kilometer that is about 30 percent less than that of gasoline-powered vehicles.
Therefore, in order to truly achieve the effect of environmental protection and zero carbon emissions, in addition to promoting electric vehicles, it is also necessary to promote the elimination of fossil fuels such as coal in the entire power system and gradually transform it into renewable energy. The full benefits of electric vehicles can only be realized when all power sources are renewable, but it will take decades to get there. Electric vehicles in the United States currently emit an average of 200 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, and by improving the power grid and power generation methods, electric vehicle emissions can be reduced by another 75%; it is expected to be reduced from 200 grams to 50 grams by 2050.
2. Convenience of charging
According to estimates by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the cumulative global sales of electric vehicles will reach 500 million units by 2040, and at least 290 million charging piles need to be built. In 2020, the ratio of the number of electric vehicles sold in the EU to the number of installed charging piles is 8.5:1, and the US is only 16.4:1, showing that the number of charging piles is far from enough.
A study by DIGITIMES Research pointed out that as of now, the ratio of electric vehicle sales to charging pile construction is 14:1, 11:1 and 6:1 in the United States, Europe, and China, respectively. There is no doubt that when the infrastructure of charging piles is insufficient, the “range anxiety” of worrying about running out of electricity and not being able to charge has become the last mile of the popularization of electric vehicles. Taking Europe as an example, countries are actively promoting the number of public charging piles, and it is estimated that 2.9 million will be added in the next 10 years.
Compared with wired charging, wireless charging can be directly installed on the ground of roads and parking grids. For densely populated areas, it not only saves the space for setting up charging piles, but also avoids the risk and trouble of wire aging, entanglement, and car owners can maintain In the past, the habit of driving a fuel car did not require manual or time-consuming charging of the electric car, which can be charged when parking or driving. But this wireless charging technology has yet to be continuously researched and developed, and maybe we will see related results in the next few years.
In addition, battery life is also an important key to the performance of electric vehicles. Among the bottlenecks that cannot be broken through charging efficiency, increasing battery life is another way to solve the use barrier.
3. Overall usage cost
With the advancement of science and technology, the price of electric vehicles is expected to decrease year by year. It is expected that the price of fuel vehicles will be higher than that of electric vehicles by 2026, which is expected to stimulate the penetration rate of electric vehicles. In addition, there will be a large number of new electric vehicles in the next few years. The launch is expected to drive the growth of automotive electronics demand.
The energy conversion efficiency of electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles, but the average maintenance cost of electric vehicles can be 40% to 50% lower than that of fuel vehicles, or even more. According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, the average maintenance cost per mile of fuel vehicles is $0.101, and the average maintenance cost per mile of electric vehicles is $0.061. In addition, the professional car repair and maintenance website “RepairPal” also stated that when the vehicle has been used for 5 years, the average cost of fuel vehicles at this point in time is about 35,000 Taiwan dollars, while electric vehicles only need 26,000 Taiwan dollars, and this cost gap will also be It’s getting bigger and bigger with the years. Electric vehicles can have lower maintenance costs because their structure is simple and clean, and there are fewer parts than fuel vehicles. With the development of batteries and motors in the future, the cost of future maintenance will definitely be reduced, and proper maintenance. The rate is bound to rise accordingly.